Trend toward more intensive breeding could cause problems

By Alicia Wincze

As an audience gathered to study his every move, Lion Heart shifted into sales mode.

Neck arched, nostrils flared and chestnut coat gleaming, the 5-year-old stallion showed off his genetic potential as he gracefully strolled out of his stall and struck a conformation pose before breeders during Ashford Stud's open house in January.

Those who were sold on what they saw hoped the $30,000 stud fee for Lion Heart's services would prove to be a bargain. But while his reputation in the breeding shed is years from being established, the son of Tale of the Cat has already eclipsed every other stallion in productivity.

When Lion Heart covered a North-American-record 233 mares during his first year of stud duty in 2005, it exemplified a trend that has grown throughout the thoroughbred-breeding industry for the better part of two decades.

For the 14th consecutive year, the number of active stallions has declined nationally while the number of mares they are servicing has climbed, reaching record heights.

Despite the number of active stallions dropping from 6,696 in 1991 to 3,097 in 2005, the average book size nationwide has gone from 9.5 mares to 19.0 in that time, according to statistics released by The Jockey Club.

Although there is no evidence that breeding to large numbers of mares causes specific ailments in stallions, simple math suggests that fewer sires covering more mares will lead to increased inbreeding, making genetic defects, such as unsoundness and bleeding, more prevalent in racehorses.

When The Jockey Club released its report of mares bred in October, 126 stallions had covered 100 or more mares last season. Of the 126 sires that hit the century mark, 86 stood in Kentucky.

As the 2006 breeding season begins, there is little reason to believe the trend of triple-figure books will change. But some industry veterans are concerned about the potential for negative consequences if it continues.

"There is definitely a long-term downside to what we're doing because we are shrinking" the gene pool, said Ric Waldman, stallion adviser to Overbrook Farm, which stands the world's leading commercial stallion, Storm Cat. "There is a market concern that all of us are willing to overlook because we tend to be shortsighted.

"I'd like to think what will happen here is the breeders will realize on their own they have damaged the broodmare band by excessive inbreeding and will expand the outcross. But I haven't seen any signs of restraint yet."

Process more efficient

Evaluating what effects the increased size of stallion books has had on the industry remains an enigma partly because the trend is somewhat in its infant stages.

From the 1960s through the early 1980s, a full book for even a legendary sire such as Mr. Prospector or Northern Dancer usually consisted of no more than 40-45 mares.

Book sizes started to creep up into the 70s by the late 1980s, but it wasn't until the mid-1990s that having 100-plus mares lined up for a promising or proven stallion -- whose fees can range from $20,000 for Northern Afleet, sire of champion Afleet Alex, to $500,000 for Storm Cat -- turned from rare occurrence to regular practice.

"I remember that the first stallion we really managed was Afleet who stood at Gainesway (from 1989-1994) and when we booked him to 90 mares, people thought we were trying to kill him," said Ben Taylor, vice president of stallion operations at Taylor Made Farm. "We caught flak over that but since that time, the books have just continued to grow to the point where they are today."

Advances in veterinary care and technology allow today's stallion to get more use from his libido. Whereas a farm manager 25 years ago might have had to take an educated guess as to when a mare might be ready to breed, ultrasound and other techniques have allowed vets to better zero in on when a mare will ovulate.

"It used to be you would average slightly in excess of two covers per pregnancy," said Airdrie Stud owner and former Kentucky governor Brereton Jones. "Now you can do it with an average of 11/2 covers and sometimes even less. It allows you to breed more mares with less use of your stallion."

'You have to follow the Joneses'

One farm in particular has been singled out for pushing the breeding-shed envelope.

When Ashford Stud -- the American arm of owner John Magnier's famed Coolmore Stud conglomerate -- entered the Central Kentucky scene in the 1980s, it brought an aggressive breeding philosophy that changed the face of the business.

In 2001, Ashford became the first -- and, to date, the only -- farm to break the 200-mare barrier when its stallion Thunder Gulch covered 216. Along with Lion Heart shattering that record this past season, stablemates Chapel Royal (222), Giant's Causeway (215) and Fusaichi Pegasus (213) all eclipsed the 200 mark in 2005 as Ashford stallions occupied the top six -- and seven of the top eight -- positions on The Jockey's Club list of mares bred.

An Ashford stallion has led the list of most mares bred for 10 consecutive years -- starting with Woodman's 143 in 1996 -- and 12 out of the last 15 seasons. Giant's Causeway and Fusaichi Pegasus have each sired more foals in their first four crops than Northern Dancer -- one of the most influential sires of the 20th century -- did in his entire career.

"They have single-handedly driven the market to where it is now," Phil McCarthy, an independent veterinarian in Central Kentucky, said of Ashford Stud. "They were very active in securing breeding rights to some of these horses. They were paying a lot of money to acquire these horses, and the only way it would work is if they had access to breed a large number of mares in this country and the Southern Hemisphere."

"For years and years we never bred more than 45-50 mares," added Marion Gross, who has been the stallion manager at Gainesway Farm for more than 40 years. "Then other people started doing it, and I guess you have to follow the Joneses. Ashford Stud is the one that really started breeding a bunch of mares to these horses."

Representatives of Ashford Stud did not return several calls from the Herald-Leader seeking comment for this article.

Flooding the market

Although concern over excessive inbreeding has increased as stallion books have grown, a shrinking gene pool might be the least of the industry's worries, according to some experts.

Just as the majority of foals born each year never make it as racehorses, the odds are equally slim a new sire will turn out to be the next Storm Cat. Since it usually takes two or three crops of foals to start seeing results, booking an unproven sire to numerous mares could lead to an abundance of inferior racehorses if he turns out to be a failure.

"The bigger concern is historically far less than 10 percent of stallions turn out to be a quote-unquote success," said John P. Sparkman, pedigree expert and bloodstock editor of the Thoroughbred Times. "What that means is if you have a stallion breeding 200 mares a year and it turns out he's only getting 2 percent stakes-winners instead of 10 percent, which is the historic measure of good stallions, then by the time you find out he's not any good, there are already 1,000 foals on the ground that are mostly bad horses.

"Add that up across the board and instead of the breed getting better ..."

With only so many good broodmares to go around, a stallion with a less-than-stellar record on the track might not get enough mares sent his way to show that his genetics might be the diamond in the rough the industry seeks.

"I would say Mr. Prospector for instance, who was not as fashionable on the track, if he stood today probably would not have bred enough mares early on in his career to establish himself," said Dan Rosenberg, president of Three Chimneys Farm. "His genetic potential would have been lost forever if there were stallions breeding 200 mares because no one would have bred to him."

Since a good portion of a stallion's value is dependent on how well his babies sell at public auction, flooding the market with too many foals by a particular sire can be detrimental. Even if a consignor is offering a foal by a popular stallion, it might have a hard time getting a top price for its filly or colt if there are 70 others that look just like it on the grounds.

"These stallions get a lot of yearlings out at the sales and some of them sell really well, but some of them sell pretty under average," said Anne Peters, pedigree expert for Three Chimneys. "They think their foal is going to get that top price, but in reality there's going to be a lot more competition out there."

Myriad reasons are responsible for the swollen size of stallion books, but the primary motivator appears to be cold, hard cash.

With more and more stallions being syndicated for millions of dollars, the pressure is on for investors to get an immediate return. Thus, if a young stallion is booked to 100-plus mares in the first few years of his career, a good chunk of the cash has already been made back even if he turns out to be a bust.

"Breeders say stud fees are too high, so we lower the fees and increase the books, and then they say there are too many mares being bred," Taylor, of Taylor Made Farm, said. "But the reason these yearling colts are bringing so much money is because these guys are willing to buy 10-12 of them, knowing that if they get one good one, they can syndicate them for $20-$30 million. But in order to get that money, the stud fee has to be high. So it's one giant cycle."

Looking for meaning

While a return to 40-mare books is not going to happen, several farms are trying to exercise quality control.

Three Chimneys, which stood Triple Crown winner and leading sire Seattle Slew for 17 years, limits its stallions to 110 mares a season. Lane's End, which stands A.P. Indy and Kingmambo for $300,000 each, has kept the average book size for its two stars around that number as well for the past several years.

"We have made the conscious decision not to overbreed those two," said Bill Farish, director of sales at Lane's End. The larger books "certainly have increased the value of the stallion because they can throw off more income every year ... but you have to be careful because it does in a lot of ways hurt the offspring in commercial salability."

And while no stallion could fill a 200-plus book quicker than Storm Cat, the 23-year-old has never covered more mares in a season than the 123 he was bred to in 2002.

"We've bred Storm Cat to as many mares as we could breed him to, taking into account his age," Waldman said. "It's awfully difficult to turn down someone who is willing to pay $500,000. But we've done as much to accommodate as many breeders as we can without jeopardizing the health of the stallion."

What effect this trend will have on the breed is something most industry veterans say won't be apparent for the next couple of decades. Judging by the flock of breeders evaluating the potential of Lion Heart and his Central Kentucky brethren, don't expect the books to decrease any time soon.

"It's one of those things that get a lot more talk than action," Sparkman said. "I'd say on a theoretical level the industry is concerned, but I haven't heard anyone come up with any rational alternative to trump capitalism.

"As long as owners are willing to have their mare be the 200th mare in a stallion's book, it's going to continue."